Suns: Shoot the Spurs Lights Out

Western Conference Finals - 2005

Amare Stoudemire - 37 ppg 9.8 rpg

San Antonio Spurs - 4

Phoenix Suns - 1

San Antonio Spurs - 108 ppg, 47.8% FG

Phoenix Suns - 104 ppg, 49.4% FG

Mike D'Antoni says that the key to a series win for the Suns is the century mark. If the team scores that much, the Suns have a good chance of winning. The Spurs are 2-12 when opponents score over 100 points this season. One half of that win total was against Phoenix in an overtime game in November - Amare Stoudemire's first start of the season.

The Spurs are 33-4 when they score over 100 points. The Suns are 8-6 when they don't. It didn't start out that way, though. One loss came when Nash sat on the bench in street clothes nursing a wounded shoulder. Another came when Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion were inactive. A third came without the services of Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw again. The Suns are 8-3 when scoring under 100 points with a full squad, and one of those losses happened on April 5 against the team's second round opponent.

I have to disagree with Coach somewhat on this one. If the Suns are going to have a chance in this series, they are going to have to play stellar defense, as well - the same kind of defense that held San Antonio to 40.8% shooting in the season series, despite two losses. The Suns averaged 98 points on 44.2% shooting in those three games, and that's where the magic 100 comes into play (even the tiniest increase in FG% nets them 100 in that series). Still, it's not really about the points. Rather, the Suns have to move the ball and find the best shot possible.

The Suns averaged a league best 25.9 assists per game this season, 11.6 coming from Steve Nash. Against the Spurs, that number plummeted all the way to 19.7 assists, 9.7 coming from Nash. I've written several times about the Suns' phenomenal assist rate, 62.3% this season. When the Suns move the ball and get open shots, they win. And they win handily, so to speak. But the key to the Suns' assist rate is not in the ball movement so much as it is the player movement. When the Suns move, the defense moves. When the defense moves, passing angles open. When passing angles open - catch, shoot, swish.

According to the numbers, the Spurs didn't allow the Suns to do that, as evidenced by their horrendously average 50.1% assist rate against San Antonio this season. The Spurs are masterful at packing in the defense and shutting down the lane. It's their thing; it's what they do. But they do it primarily with man-to-man coverage, so why are they so successful at it when the Suns are so good at breaking down man coverage?

Well, for starters, the Spurs are really adept at closing out three point shooters. They may hang within inches of the paint, but once the ball goes to the perimeter, there is a big defender jumping out to disrupt the shot. And once that perimeter player gets rid of the ball, that defender jumps back in, and the next one jumps out at the next potential shooter. It's actually pretty basic. They stay close enough to the perimeter to disrupt passing lanes and annoy the hell out of shooters, and they stay close enough to the paint to cut off the drive. It's the most anal defense in league history, tightening and releasing like the morning after Indian take out.

The goal in this series is to get off the pot and force the defense either to release or tighten. If it releases, all kinds of lanes for passing and driving open up, and the slower footed Spurs won't be able to collapse in time without fouling. If it tightens - bombs away, or at the very least, get the D-3 call against San Antonio. The key is to get Tim Duncan as far away from the basket as possible, and that means that Amare is going to have to make those mid-range jumpers he's worked so hard on. Kurt Thomas, too. The real X-factor is whether or not Boris Diaw will be effective in this series. If anyone can get that Spurs defense scrambling out of position, it's the deft post passer.

The shooters have to do their part, as well. Standing on the wings or in the corner isn't going to cut it against the Spurs because that's exactly what they want teams to do. It allows them to stay in that annoying defensive alignment that brings the entire game to a stand still. Raja Bell, James Jones, Leandro Barbosa, and Shawn Marion need to play in perpetual motion. The Spurs may not allow the Suns to run in the open court (they consistently release three players on every outside shot attempt to stop the break), but they will be hard pressed to stop the Suns from running in the half court motion offense that makes D'Antoni's style so beautifully chaotic.

If the Suns move, the ball moves. If the ball moves, it finds the open man - catch, shoot, swish. The assist rate goes up, and the Suns win - handily.

It sounds so simple, but Phoenix never seems to do it consistently against San Antonio. Not in the regular season, anyway. And not two years ago, when Leandro barely played, Joe Johnson's face was busted into a half dozen pieces, and Quentin Richardson was on again, off again...and off some more.

Shawn Marion was nowhere to be seen in that series on the offensive end, as well, but with all those lanes closed off for destruction, it's no wonder. His game is predicated on quick moves to the basket without the ball, and he just can't do that when no one is there to make the perimeter shots. He averaged 10.8 rebounds that series, so we know he was there on the defensive end, averaging 8.2 defensive rebounds in the five games.

So is it really just a matter of breaking the 100 point barrier against San Antonio?

Not when the Suns averaged 98 points per game versus the Spurs' 97.7 points this year. And not when the teams have played to a virtual draw on the backboards. The Suns can get out-rebounded and still win easily. It's just a matter of making their shots, thus reducing their chances (and the other teams' chances) for rebounds.

All the Suns really have to do to win this series is play their game. They shouldn't be talking or thinking about how many points they need to score. To be honest, I think that's just a rose colored fish, anyway. Mike D'Antoni said it himself when asked how he feels his team matches up with the Spurs:

I think you need to go ask them how they match up with us.

That is supreme confidence. That is a coach telling both his team and theirs, "We don't care what you do, we're playing our game." And that game is move, move, move - the players, the ball, the opposing defense. Make them all move, and the Suns get their open lanes, they get their open shots, and they get their date with a third straight Western Conference Finals.

*Update:

A lot has been made about match ups in this series. Don't believe it. This series is going to be loaded with mismatches, from Bowen on Nash to Marion on Parker, and even D'Antoni against Popovich.

Let's be realistic about this. The Spurs are the best at what they do, as well the Suns are the best at what they do. There is going to be little coaching involved in this series because the players know their coach's systems backwards and forwards. This is going to come down to which team executes. This, my friends, is a battle of style versus style.

Pundits and backyard coaches everywhere say that the Spurs are going to attack Nash due his defensive weaknesses. I don't recall Bruce Bowen being that much of an offensive threat, so I don't see how that philosophy is going to work. Spurs fans say that Tony Parker will eat Nash alive. How will he do that when Shawn Marion will be the one checking him on the perimeter? Ginobili? Meet Raja Bell. Manu used to tear the Suns up at a 20 point per game clip. Since Raja came on board, Ginobili is down to 16.6 points per game on 43% shooting.

Match ups? Forget them. They are out the window because nobody will be guarding somebody they should, when going by position. And when Nash and Barbosa are on the court together - then what? Bowen clones himself?

And that is what makes this series so intriguing. No one really knows what to expect because traditional match ups are not even part of the equation. This is bigger than who is guarding whom. This is all about whose style will prevail.

Not to draw too even a parallel, but we all witnessed what a free wheeling offense and adequate defense can do against a strong(ish) defensive team. When the Spurs' pentagonal defense runs up against the Suns' kaleidoscope offense, whose geometry will crack first?

I don't want to put the whammy on the Suns' title hopes, but I honestly believe that the Suns will take this series in six games.