October 12, 2007

Think Tank

Today is not a good day to be a Diamondbacks fan.

Forget the game one loss in the National League Championship series. Forget the controversial call by second base umpire, Larry Vanover. The Colorado Rockies played a whale of a game, and no call by any umpire was going to change that.

Maligned for a week and a half by the national and local press for not selling out fast enough for their tastes, Diamondbacks fans finally showed some passion for what happened on the field. Unfortunately for all concerned, some fans took things a little too far last night.

Now, far be it from me to tell another human being how to conduct himself. I'm all about personal responsibility, although I have no problem expressing my opinion on the behavior of others. As a cynic, it is my job to point out such things, however hypocritical it may seem. (I am not above assaulting myself for infractions of my own standards.)

Some fans at the ball park absolutely need a thrashing for what transpired. For goodness sake - throwing BEER AND WATER BOTTLES onto the playing field? Yes, fans were upset about a controversial call that turned a hard slide into second by Justin Upton into an automatic double play that didn't advance the runner, Chris Snyder, to third. It was a rally killer, to be sure, but it is at times like that when fans need to think about where they are and what they are doing, and to get behind their team, not handicap them.

The Diamondbacks were down four runs, anyway, so there is no reason to think that an umpire cost us a chance to come back late. Stephen Drew, as much of a fan of him that I am, blew it by swinging at the first pitch with the bases loaded. The D-Backs have done a lot of their damage all season with two outs, so why ostracize a man who actually put the team into a position to do just that?

Well, that's the psychology of sports in action.

As I mentioned earlier, Diamondback fans have had a rough ten days. We had to sit through the godawful, shamefully biased commentary by Dick Stockton and Ron Darling during the team's sweep of the Cubs. The broadcast director had a nice hand in the action, too, making sure that the entire country saw every Cubs fan in attendance at our home park. The bottom line was that Cubs fans are among the best in baseball, while Diamondback fans are fair weather front runners who wouldn't know how to conduct themselves at a game without the assistance of the Jumbotron.

Almost in unison, we cried foul. "East coast bias!"

Even after the team completed the sweep, the attention still lay on the difference between the teams' fan bases. But the NLCS was supposed to change things. Suddenly, we were in a big series against a team in the same boat as our team. A bunch of young unknowns who have no business being there (despite their combined 180 regular season wins). Finally, we could get past all the fan talk and focus on two great stories in baseball. That is, until the Rockies sold out before we did. Still, it should not have been an issue, according to team president, Derrick Hall.



This is traditionally a late-buying fan base. Tomorrow we are just a few thousand shy, so should sell out for it, too. Our crowds really should not have been a focus of the national media. This fan base is extremely supportive, and though we had several seats open this week, we were confident in our fans.


Now everyone who took the time to defend Arizona fans on blogs, message boards, and in e-mail have to suffer the effects of a self-fulfilling prophecy. They said we were bad fans, and a few (presumably) drunk idiots gave the whole country reason to believe that we are the worst fans in professional sports, and there is nothing we can do about it. Here's why . . .

Due to the disproportionate coverage of "loyal" Cub fans and "disloyal" Diamondback fans, the national media has made evidence to the contrary (that is, there are more "good" D-Back fans than "bad") irrelevant. The general population is primed to believe anything negative said about us. This is known as the "availability heuristic." This phenomenon of the human mind suggests that we are more likely to make judgements about a person or situation based on the information that is most readily available to us. Id est, if there are a lot of articles and images portraying Diamondback fans as disloyal front runners, then people are going to assume that it is true.

No amount of information that indicates otherwise is sufficient to counter this effect due to another neat little phenomenon known as "confirmation bias." That is to say, we tend to seek out information that supports our point of view while discarding any information that contradicts that perspective. Regardless how many images we see of fans cheering their team passionately, a person arguing against us will only remember things like beer bottles thrown onto the field of play.

This effect enables a person to avoid the uncomfortable feeling of dissonance that freezes our brains when our stern beliefs are challenged. We have been primed to believe one thing, and anything that shows our beliefs to be false causes us to react irrationally, going so far as to dismiss such contradictory information (ironically enough) as but one example that does not change the overall perception created by the availability heuristic.

Moreover, people have a tendency to attribute another person's behavior to flaws in that person ("Stop making excuses why you guys aren't sold out!"), rather than seeking to understand the circumstances surrounding the behavior in question. This is known as the "fundamental attribution error." When explaining the behavior of others, it is much easier to assume that the other person is flawed in such a way that makes them fundamentally inferior to us rather than understanding their situation (there are myriad reasons for not selling out games, and they are all valid). Oddly enough, it is also a person's tendency to allow situations and circumstance to explain his own behavior. Egocentric thinking at its finest (though I simply call it hypocrisy).

Opposing fans are not the only people at the mercy of these psychological phenomena.

Interestingly enough, home field advantage can be both a blessing and a curse. Umpires and officials are human, subject to the same rules of behavior as the rest of us. Did anyone else notice Tim McClelland's expanded strike zone after the incident? "Self-verification theory" explains this event nicely. The fans boo the home plate umpire incessantly, so the tendency is to act in accordance to that behavior. Basically, we act the way people expect us to act. This is often confused with having a stubborn ego, but the reality is that it is a difficult phenomenon to overcome. If the fans support the officiating, the officials are more likely to give the benefit of calls to the home team. However, if the official feels that he is being "attacked," the calls will tend to favor the visiting team. (This is why Utah is such a difficult place for many NBA teams to play.)

Ultimately, there is nothing an Arizona fan can immediately do to repair the damage that has been done by a few lousy individuals. There is no spontaneous fix. The "ultimate attribution error" is in effect. The assumption is that, if some fans are barbaric Romans throwing rocks into the Gladiatorial arena, then they all must be barbaric Romans. We cease to be mere "fans." We are now "bad fans."

Guess what, folks -- perception is reality in this world. We have been painted by the media as dispassionate, ignorant fans, and the actions of a few have now cemented that perception. We had a chance to overcome all the bad press, but a few moronic individuals just could not control themselves, and now we all have to pay for their indiscretions. I don't like it, and no one really should.

The only thing we can do now is to be more cognizant of our behavior. Think before we act and speak, aware of the fact that changing a person's mind is near impossible without the right tools and the right amount of time. Of course, it would help if our local boys (Dan Bickley, Nick Piecoro, Bob Young, et al) took the time to present as many examples of positive fan behavior as possible, fighting the urge to fall into the trap of perpetuating myths started by an irresponsible media and even more irresponsible fans.

Granted, these journalists are as well subject to these same rules of human psychology, so we have to rely on their strengths as individuals to admit fault first.

As for the rest of us, it will be in our best interest to remain as non-combative as humanly possible. Find examples of positive fan behavior, and shove those examples down their throats. They can't ignore facts forever.

As I said earlier, it is near impossible - not completely impossible. We have to be aware of how we function as people, and work around that. If we have the intelligence to recognize these patterns, then we have the ability to counteract them.

We can start by not throwing beer bottles onto the field.

Information on the terms used can be found here.

October 7, 2007

The Bitch is Back

Let's see...where to begin? Right where I left off should work, then we'll zoom from there.

One last comment on the Matrix issue, first. I've done my defending, and if people refuse to listen or attempt to understand, then I'm not going to tie them to a tree and brand them with a human conscience. This isn't about Shawn Marion. It's about the fans. And for all of you, I have one simple question (read: complicated human psychological inquiry).

Three months ago, practically everyone was drooling at the prospect of dropping the Trix for the Tick. When we found out his camp squashed the prospect of the deal, Marion was blamed for putting himself above the team and the fans. Suddenly, Marion asks for a trade, and EVERYONE IN THE WHOLE DAMN WORLD blasted him for his disloyalty to us, called him the biggest cry baby ever to have walked the earth, and reminded him that he makes too much money not to be happy.

The question: What the hell is up with THAT?! He's a goat for not wanting to be traded, then he's a goat for wanting to be traded. And we blame HIM?!

Think about it for a while, then get back to me. I anxiously await all the hypocritically dissonant replies.

Now to join the blogger bandwagon and take a look at the upcoming season. It's too early in the morning (meaning I've been up all night) to do the whole *link thing, so forgive me if I don't take anyone's hand and guide them to my sources. I get them from the same places you get your NBA information, anyway. All they really do is make me look somewhat credible, and what's the value in that...really?

Let's start with the negative things people have had to say so far, then we'll work our way up to the positive.

"Robert Sarver is a cheap, money-grubbing owner whose only interest is in making money."

Duh.

He's a businessman. He paid $400 million for the franchise. People don't spend nearly half a billion dollars to lose money. They spend it to make more money. Fan or not, that's how it is. If you don't like it, YOU pay the tab.

Yeah...I didn't think so.

"Steve Kerr is mortgaging the future of the team to save money now."

No, he is not. Admittedly, I was skeptical about the course of action taken early in the offseason. It wasn't so much the moves he made as it was the timing. Giving away Kurt Thomas before the trading deadline when there were no viable big men replacements on the market seemed a rather odd maneuver to me. Apparently, he may have been one of the sources of chemistry issues on the team (unsubstantiated, but still a reasonable assumption given his disappearance from the rotation the second half of the season).

So let's look quickly at what Steve Kerr sacrificed in the name of "puppetry".

Kurt Thomas: $8 million + $8 million off the books for the price of two unprotected first round draft picks, and that oh-so-useful trade exception. In return, a second round pick.

Now, the myth regarding trade exceptions is that they allow a team to trade for a player more expensive than those a team jettisons without regard to the luxury tax. The truth is that it only allows the team to exceed the salary cap (hence "exception", as in "cap exception", not "tax exception"). The team still has to pay any luxury tax of salaries which exceed the cap. For the Suns, this is completely useless, as they have no intention of exceeding the cap by more than a couple million dollars.

People need to look at this move realistically. Yes, Kerr gave away KT. Yes, KT was our only low post defender. But he also missed a significant number games due to injury during his tenure here, he couldn't handle more than two laps up and down the court, his rebounding was negligible, and his shot blocking non-existent. Kerr gave up two first rounders the team would never use (seriously, to expect them to be of value to the Suns, i.e. lottery picks, is to believe the Suns will miss the playoffs next year and in 2010. Have you seen the core of young players on the team? Yeah...get over it.)

This move saved a boatload of money, allowing the team to keep Shawn Marion (Garnett's in Boston, it's not Shawn's fault, get over that one, too.) They were also able to sign a younger, stronger, more athletic big man in Brian Skinner, whose stats are almost exactly the same as Kurt's were last year. Figuring in the luxury tax, that's equal production with greater potential at one-sixteenth the price. What more could you want? A 28 year old Shaquille O'Neal?

James Jones: $3 million + $3 million off the books for the price of a first round pick.

Um...Grant Hill, anyone? Half the price, ten times the skill and experience, and a consistent jump shot. A 15 minute-a-night bench player for an All Star starter? BARGAIN!

"The Suns didn't even try to trade Banks. He's useless!"

Yeah...remember when Barbosa was "useless"? How'd that turn out? Now, I'm not saying that Banks is going to get Leandro's jumper any time soon, but there is a case to be made that young scoring point guards take time to learn and adapt to D'Antoni's system. Given another chance, Banks could prove to be a valuable asset when it comes time to shut down guys like...oh, I dunno...Tony Parker?

And if anyone thinks that teams were knocking down the door at AWA (USAC, my ass) to pry Banks away from the Suns, then they paid too much for whatever they're smoking. (Hint: Lots of powdery residue means you got junk.) Look, Marcus Banks is a talented guy. He's shown a lot of poise and class by keeping whatever frustrations he may have behind closed doors. And whenever he found court time in the middle of a game, he played his heart out. D'Antoni's system is very complicated. Banks is young and relatively inexperienced in the league. Give it a chance.

If he takes off this year, one of two things will happen, and neither of them are bad for us.

1. He will prove to be a valuable commodity, thus giving the Suns some flexibility at the trade deadline if need be.

2. He will prove to be an invaluable commodity, and he'll see significant minutes in the playoffs.

"Amare just had his THIRD knee operation, and he's only 24 years old. And we don't even have a back up for him, yet!"

The Suns DO have a back up for him. He played two years ago, and did a very fine job of helping the team reach the conference finals for the second straight year. How quickly we forget that amazing team of destiny and chemistry, defying all odds in the face of adversity. Kinda reminds you a little of the Diamondbacks, doesn't it? (I just HAD to throw a D-Back reference in there. 2007 NLCS, baby! Ahem...anyway...)

Also, the procedure Amare underwent is quite common in professional sports. Anyone who's run up and down a hard court or been tackled into the turf understands the unusual wear and tear the body goes through, and sometimes little messes have to be cleaned up. It happens ALL THE TIME, and players come back in a few weeks ready to go again. Do yourselves a favor and watch the injury reports this season. You'll see just how common arthroscopy is in all four leagues, and you'll see a lot of familiar names on the lists.

Did I miss anything?

Good. This brings us to all the wonderful things we have to look forward to this season.

Since I brought it up, do you remember that magical season two years ago? Amare went down due to microfracture surgery on his left knee, and the experts spelled out the doom the Suns faced that year -- an 8th seed in the playoffs with a quick first round exit.

Six months later - Western Conference Finals. And it took two more injuries to stop THAT run (the aforementioned Thomas followed by Raja's freak calf tear).

Now imagine that small-ball, run it down their throats, pass it till they're puking dizzy, shoot the arena lights out attack a bit bigger, a little stronger, and a helluva lot more athletic with the addition of Amare, Hill, and rookie hopefuls Alando Tucker and DJ Strawberry (who has been drawing raves from coaches, players, and fans for his tough defense and surprising ability to handle the passing duties, and whose improving jump shot has drawn Coach D'Antoni's attention). Replace Kurt Thomas with the younger, stronger, and faster Brian Skinner, and Tim Duncan can sell beer in the stands for all the Suns care. As Kobe Bryant has shown us time and time again, one player cannot beat the Suns.

Speaking of Grant Hill, my mind hasn't changed on what he brings to the team. From the reports coming out of camp, he's looking as quick and spry as he did before injuries derailed his career. Add to the mix the Suns training staff and legs that haven't been overworked for the last five years, and there's reason to believe that the Suns could very well produce five legitimate All Star candidates this season (Leandro will be a tough guy for coaches to leave off, even if he does go to Brazil that weekend).

And apparently, Shawn really likes what Hill brings to the team. Apparently, Marion has been feasting off Grant Hill feeds all week, and we all know that Shawn likes when someone hands him a free meal. That includes the "I'm not here to steal your thunder" dinner Hill had with Marion. These guys are going to get along juuuuuust fine, I think.

Speaking of chemistry, all seems right with the world in Sunsland, according to Paul Coro's reports from camp (I'm going to make a concerted effort to be nice to the home town guys this season, as the national pricks will consume all my venom), which leads me to believe that Shawn was not the cause of those issues last season, as is the common belief. I can't say for sure, as I'm not a locker room attendant. But if the Suns say that they're happy, if Shawn is smiling and enjoying the company (and assists) of his new team mates, then there's no reason to suspect otherwise.

And is it a coincidence that suddenly the organization is talking about those issues we never heard about last year? Or does it have to do with the departures of a few veterans who came in expecting to log a full slate of minutes, only to sit helplessly on the bench as Amare and Diaw lost their freaking minds?

Jalen Rose? Gone.

Pat Burke? Buh-bye.

Jumaine Jones? We hardly knew you. (Hell, most Suns fans never even figured out that his name isn't Jermaine.)

Pike and Marks stayed, and they seem to be quality guys who understand their place in the league now. Hell, they're just happy to be getting a paycheck still.

Like I said, I can't say for sure about that, but it seems awfully strange that, even after Shawn's public request for a free ticket to LAX, the Suns are getting along famously again. The team has openly admitted to the problems of last season, so it's not exactly something they'd turn around and lie about all of a sudden. I'm prone to give our guys the benefit of the doubt. We've followed them and loved them too long not to.

To me, there is a lot to be optimistic about this season. Whatever happens, this should turn out to be a great season. Expect a slow start with Amare's return from surgery and the assimilation of the new guys. Don't be surprised to see a .500 team the first couple weeks of the season. Conversely, don't be surprised to see a 40-10 team at the All Star break.

I won't be. Despite each of the last three seasons being wholly unpredictable and clearly distinguishable from one another, I've learned that the one thing this team does better than any other is defy expectations. Speaking of which . . .


Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Pacific, 4th in Western Conference (3rd playoff seed)

- John Hollinger, espn NBA statistical "expert"


I'll be conservative and say 59-23, but only because 60 wins is getting boring. All that matters is that the Suns will win the Pacific Division by default (Golden State just got hit with a key injury to Monta Ellis, so that's 4 for 4), they'll be the number two seed in the West, and they'll have their best shot ever at winning a title.

To the experts who doubt the Suns yet again I say, you have laid the gauntlet, sirs, and I accept your challenge.

**UPDATE: Good ol' Bright Side! A blogger was fortunate enough to attend the Suns scrimmage at McKale, and nice enough to write about the experience. Seems we do have a lot of good times to look forward to.

*So I managed to give you some links. That's how cool I am. Always the martyr.