Foul Chart

Right off, I have to admit that I have no idea what happened to the two extra fouls (one on each team) and the two free throws missing from the Suns' total. I have looked for them as much as I can be bothered, but as I have mentioned several times, this was a TEDIOUS task. My eyes are swollen and itchy from zooming in too closely on a 15.4" LCD screen. At this point, though, I don't think that the missing statistics are relevant to the big picture. Attributing them to Donaghy does nothing to further any potential incrimination, and giving them to one or both of the other two officials would do nothing to deflect suspicion from Donaghy's foul calls.

In sum, the numbers are close enough for my purposes, which was to find any discrepancies that might be interpreted as biased foul calling on Tim Donaghy's part.

I could probably break this numbers down to say anything I want against Donaghy, but the fact of the matter is that he was almost non-existent throughout the majority of the game. He was most active in the second quarter, calling 6 fouls (4 on Phoenix, 2 on San Antonio), which equalled the number of fouls called by Willard and Rush combined in the quarter.

Perhaps not coincidentally, this was the quarter that the Suns began to pull away, leading by as many as 11, until two crucial calls from Donaghy. The the first call from Donaghy in the quarter (his third of the game, his only one on Amare) was Amare Stoudemire's second foul, an either-way foul that Jon Barry termed "a young foul". The second was the infamous late whistle that came from Donaghy a full two seconds after the play, as well as from half court, the furthest official from the play.

The Spurs finished that quarter on a 28-17 run, leading by two points going into half time. The total score at this point was 108, more than half way to the Vegas over/under line. During that quarter, Donaghy awarded 7 free throws to San Antonio, compared to the two he awarded to Phoenix.

Things turned strange in the third quarter, a period marred by several non-calls against the Spurs, mostly three second violations and Bowen's antics against Nash. Donaghy disappeared in the third, as well, calling only two fouls on San Antonio, and awarding Phoenix a mere 3 free throws.

Then we get to the fourth quarter, which San Antonio led wire to wire, with Phoenix never getting closer than 6 points (twice). Again, Donaghy was strangely absent, calling only 3 fouls total, and awarding 3 free throws between the two teams. Compare that with the 8 free throws a piece awarded by Willard and Rush. I will note, though, that all 8 of Willard's free throws went to San Antonio.

In the end, I see no big complete game discrepancy between what Donaghy called and what Rush called. The game as a whole is not so much evidence that Donaghy was on the take, but more an indictment of the horrid state of the officiating in the NBA today, regardless of gambling. By my count, Greg Willard, for the game, called 9 fouls on Phoenix and 6 on San Antonio. That's a reasonable disparity, until you consider that he awarded San Antonio three times as many free throw opportunities, allowing the Spurs to shoot 15 free throws to the Suns' 5, compliments of Willard.

Despite Rush's fourth quarter blindness, he called the most even game, handing 8 fouls to each team, and awarding Phoenix two more free throw attempts. This is comparable to Donaghy's final numbers, which give San Antonio one more foul and three more free throws (curiously inverted to what would be expected).

To be fair, eight of Willard's 15 free throws for the Spurs came in the fourth quarter, Donaghy's most conspicuously silent quarter.

I don't think anyone can deny that game three between the Suns and Spurs was the most atrociously officiated game in NBA playoff history. Not just the number of missed calls, but that all but two of them favored the Spurs is an indication that the referees do indeed interpret the rules differently depending on the team. I counted no less than six times a Spurs player standing inside the lane while his man was outside the three point line. In elementary school we called it "baby guarding the basket", and it was against the rules then, too. There is also the matter of what has been termed "physical defense", which for some teams means hard intentional fouls at the rim, and for others means quick hacks at a driver's arms. The Suns don't know from physical defense, so it's surprising that they were called for so many shooting fouls.

As an indictment of Tim Donaghy, the best evidence is the second quarter. He came alive just in time to stem a Suns momentum swing and allow the Spurs to regain control. I didn't note a single moment after the first quarter that the game was in danger of missing the over, not with the Suns averaging 24 points per quarter and the Spurs averaging 27 points. If the game cut close, then there was always room to call fouls later in the game. For the record, the over/under was beat at 1:51 in the fourth, when Tony Parker scored on a drive to push the score to 106-95 in favor of San Antonio -- 201 points for the mathematically challenged.

Oddly, though, most of those fourth quarter fouls came from the whistle of Greg Willard. Donaghy's contribution of three fouls total for the quarter hardly seem enough to push the score upward, especially considering that they weren't even timely calls. No, if Donaghy was working the spread or the over/under, he did it in the second quarter with a very timely slew of foul calls and a disproportionate number of free throws to San Antonio that not only killed Phoenix's momentum, but gave the Spurs the lead going into half time.

So whether or not this game proves to be an example of a fixed game is irrelevant at this point. Suns fans cried foul (pardon) when the game was going on, and even the media knew something wasn't right. Yet Stern continued to ignore the pleas of NBA fans everywhere right through the suspensions, and right until the news of Tim Donaghy broke. Now he has no choice but to look at that game very closely. No doubt he will draw similar conclusions to mine - ultimately, there is no conclusive proof that Donaghy inappropriately influenced this game, yet there are still numerous questionable calls and non-calls that are incongruous with good basketball.

Stern has to look closely at this game, and any game like it, and realize that his officials tend to be lazy, arrogant, and incompetent in big situations. The game may not have been fixed, but the officiating was bad enough that it may as well have been. God forbid I ever have to watch that game again.

Prohibition Works

This is how completely out of touch David Stern is. USA Today reports that Stern is still against legalized gambling.

Why?

Well, much like prohibition during the depression and California's "three strike rule" worked wonders to stop people from using drugs and alcohol, Stern expects that legislating human behavior is the answer for society's ills.

The NBA investigation is sure to rekindle debate about whether sports betting should be legalized. That would enable government agencies such as Nevada's Gaming Control Board to oversee and regulate the majority of bets now wagered illegally.

Stern disagrees. "Historically, I think that by making it legal, you're going to encourage more people to bet," he said Tuesday.

Think about it - an old New York lawyer who believes that prohibition worked, it just wasn't given enough time, apparently.

This is the guy who tells players how to dress and conduct themselves. This is the guy responsible for marketing what has become a hip-hop product. This is also the guy who believes that a young, emotionally jacked up player has the mental awareness to control the natural urge to leap to a companion's defense if that companion has been hurt.

David Stern has been telling us for years that his officials are the best in the business, that there is absolutely no credence to any conspiracy theories. Now he tells us that legalized gambling will "encourage more people to bet", which, by logical extension makes the problem even worse. I just have one suggestion.

Can someone please remind Stern about the $300 BILLION in illegal bets made last year?

The Other Half

3rd QUARTER

11:25
Foul on PHX
Amare block attempt on Duncan, Amare's 3rd
2 FT for SA
Willard, baseline, in position
Replay shows all ball, arm contact incidental after the block

11:08
Foul on SA
Duncan bites on Nash pump fake, Duncan raises his hand, his 3rd
2 FT for PHX
Willard, baseline, in position
This after Tony Parker hand checking Nash from behind on the perimeter, where Donaghy stood

11:00
O Foul on SA
Bowen knees Nash in the groin, Bowen's first
Rush, half court, in position

10:35
O Foul on PHX
Amare "knocks over" Oberto under the basket, Amares 4th
Rush, baseline, in position

10:18
3 Second violation, SA
Willard, baseline

9:44
No call on SA
Parker runs into Thomas screen, raises his elbow
Donaghy, sideline position, Willard, baseline, Rush behind the play

9:17
No call on SA
Bowen reaches across Nash's chest on a drive at the top
Jon Barry comments during stop in play that "Nash looks out of sorts today"
Donaghy, half court position, Willard, behind the play, Rush, baseline

8:32
Foul on SA
Oberto hits Thomas on dunk attempt (same as Amare's second)
2 FT
(7-0 run for PHX puts them ahead 60-56)
Donaghy, baseline, in position

7:27
No call on SA
Marion gets the ball underneath, Duncan comes over the his back
Duncan then holds Marion down on the rebound attempt, ball bounces to Parker
Willard, baseline, in position, Rush, sideline, Donaghy, half court, behind the play

7:02
No call on SA
Duncan guards no one in particular as Diaw posts Parker
Willard, baseline, Rush, sideline, Donaghy, half court

7:00
No call on SA
Duncan holds Diaw on rebound attempt
Willard, baseline, Donaghy, sideline, Rush, half court

6:46
Foul on PHX (should have been on SA)
Diaw follows Bowen baseline, hits Duncan screen, Duncan falls
Replay shows Duncan hip checked Diaw, causing him to spin and hit Duncan on the back
Rush, baseline, in position

6:14
Foul on PHX (should have been on SA)
Duncan slashes, Nash gets position outside the circle
Duncan runs into Nash, called blocking foul
2 FT for SA
Willard, baseline, in position

5:33
No call on SA
Duncan guarding no one, feet are below free throw line while Thomas is above three point line

5:30
No call on SA
Nash drives, Duncan hits Nash's shooting arm
Rush, baseline, in position
SA leads, 66-60

3:20
No call on SA
Ginobili pushes through a Nash screen
Donaghy and Rush in back court

2:57
Foul on SA
Nash drives, blocking on Barry
1 FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

2:39
Marion scores on a fast break dunk
SA leads 70-69

1:49
Foul on SA
Ginobili hammers Jones on up and under move, Ginobili's first
2 FT for PHX
Willard, baseline, in position

1:33
No call on PHX
Ginobili spins through the lane, loses control, falls down
Infamous Marion swipe that led to black eye
Rush and Donaghy in backcourt, Willard, baseline
All refs are blocked out, R and D are behind the play, Bell is in front of Willard

46.5
Foul on PHX
Bell hits Ginobili's hand after release of 3-pointer, flop
3 FT for SA
Rush and Donaghy in backcourt make the call
Rush in position

30.7
No violation call on SA
Ginobili guards no one, stays under the basket until Diaw posts Vaughn
Forces bad pass
Rush, baseline position, Willard and Donaghy, back court

7.9
Foul on SA
Vaugh trips Barbosa on drive
2 FT for PHX
Rush, baseline, in position

0.3
No call on SA
Parker fumbles the 3 point shot with 2.3 seconds
Gets control, then throws elbow into Barbosa trying to draw the foul
Rush, sideline, in position

3rd Quarter Foul Stats

Willard: 2 Fouls on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
2 FT for PHX, 4 FT for SA

Rush: 3 Fouls on PHX, 2 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 3 FT for SA

Donaghy: 2 Fouls on SA
3 FT for PHX

PHX: Called for 5 fouls, received 7 free throw attempts
SA: Called for 5 fouls, received 7 free throw attempts

Game Totals:

PHX: 15 Fouls, 19 FTA
SA: 16 Fouls, 23 FTA

4th QUARTER

11:50
Foul on PHX
Bell reaches in on Ginobili
Willard, sideline, in position

11:41
Foul on PHX
Amare's 5th, late on defense, hacked Duncan
2 FT for SA
Rush, baseline, in position
SA leads 82-72 after FTs

11:30 - 11:20
2 No calls
Parker standing in the lane guarding no one when the ball is on the perimeter
Barry is holding Diaw, preventing him from standing his position
Ball goes into Diaw, then Parker moves in to double
Rush, baseline, in position

Jon Barry comments how every time someone gets by a SA player, there is

always someone there...could that be those players standing under the basket,

guarding no one?

(3 minutes of bad basketball later)

8:43
Possible no call foul on SA
Marion running the break goes for the lay up with Parker on him
Hard to see contact, no replay, Marion protests
Willard, baseline, in position

8:29
Foul on PHX
Diaw pushes Horry under the basket, Horry flips the ball over his head
2 FT for SA
Rush, baseline, in position

8:15
No call foul on SA
Bowen reaches in on Nash after Nash passes him on the drive
Donaghy, sideline, in position
Nash scores anyway, SA leads 88-79

7:38
No call foul on SA
Nash drives past Bowen, Bowen hits Nash's off arm, ball comes loose
Nash is pissed
Willard, sideline, in position

7:29
Technical foul on PHX
Mike D'Antoni
1 FT for SA
Willard, baseline
SA leads 91-79

6:09
No call foul on SA
Again, Nash drives past Bowen, Bowen grabs Nash's left arm, Horry hits

Nash's right arm
This is the one Eddie F. Rush looked right at
Rush, baseline, in position
93-83 SA

6:00
Foul on PHX
Thomas hacks Duncan on shot attempt
2 FT for SA
Willard, baseline, in position

5:50
Foul on SA (should be Duncan's 4th, Horry's 4th instead)
Marion hit from behind on drive to the basket
2 FT for PHX
Replay shows all ball for Horry, Duncan hits Marion's arm
Rush, sideline, Willard, baseline, in position
94-84 SA

4:49
Foul on SA
Duncan hacks Amare on a dunk attempt, not Duncan's 4th
Foul changed to Ginobili, who swiped at the ball from behind, his 3rd
2 FT for PHX
Donaghy, baseline, in position, Willard, sideline
97-89 SA

4:39
Foul on PHX
Parker drives around Marion, Marion bumps Parker on the shot
1 FT for SA
Willard, half court, in position

3:01
Foul on PHX
Thomas hacks Duncan in the lane, unclear from camera angle, no replay
Suns had just cut the lead to 6, 99-93 SA
1 FT for SA
Donaghy, baseline, in position
102-93 SA

2:48
No call foul on SA
Stoudemire maneuvers around Duncan, who can't recover
Hacks Amare from behind
Replay confirms Duncan's left hand on Amare's back and right hand hitting

Amare's wrist
Donaghy, baseline, in position, Rush, sideline
102-93 SA

2:35
Foul on PHX
Ginobili drives, leans, and misses lay up
Appears to be no contact
2 FT for SA
Willard, baseline, in position
104-93 SA

2:26
Foul on SA
"Why call that NOW?"
Bowen hacks Nash at the top...again (it happened every time Nash blew by

Bowen in this quarter, at least 4 non calls that I didn't log due to tediousness

and frequency of occurence)
NO FT, SA not in penalty
Donaghy, sideline, in position
104-93 SA, Suns score after inbounds, 104-95 SA

1:18
Foul on SA
Ginobili trips Nash on the drive at the top
No FT, SA still not in the penalty
Willard, sideline, in position, Donaghy, baseline
107-98 SA

38.6
Foul on SA
Duncan undercuts Amare on alley oop attempt
Finally Duncan's 4th
2 FT for PHX
Rush, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline position, both make the call

No call
Bowen is holding Nash's arm down on the pass
Rush, baseline, in position

36.9
Intentional foul on PHX
Bell hacks Duncan on inbounds
2 FT for SA
Willard, baseline, in position


4th Quarter Foul Stats

Willard: 5 Fouls on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
8 FT for SA

Rush: 2 Fouls on PHX, 2 Fouls on SA
4 FT for PHX, 4 FT for SA

Donaghy: 1 Foul on PHX, 2 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 1 FT for SA

Totals: 8 Fouls on PHX, 5 Fouls on SA
6 FT for PHX, 13 FT for SA

2nd Half Stats

Willard: 7 Fouls on PHX, 2 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 12 FT for SA

Rush: 5 Fouls on PHX, 4 Fouls on SA
6 FT for PHX, 7 FT for SA

Donaghy: 1 Foul on PHX, 4 Fouls on SA
5 FT for PHX, 1 FT for SA

13 Fouls on PHX, 10 Fouls on SA
13 FT for PHX, 20 FT for SA

Game Totals

PHX: 23 Fouls, 25 FTS
SA: 21 Fouls, 36 FTA

Missing 1 Foul each, and 2 PHX FTs

Something's screwy with the numbers. They're almost all there, but one foul keeps changing teams, one is missing, as well as its accompanying free throw attempts. It's a pain, believe me. I've been over all the numbers several times, and I've been over the video as many times for each call. Stay tuned, and I'll see if I can't figure it out. Either way, the results are surprising.

Whistle Blowers and Foul Play

***Updated Tuesday, July 24 2007 5:39 AM AZ time.

For purposes of this analysis, I focused solely on fouls and violations, either real or imagined. I am looking at both sides of the court. I want to be fair and as objective as possible, which is in my best interest, anyway, because we have more than just who wins the game consider. There is a matter of the final score, and the total for both teams combined.

Yes, I believe that the Spurs were screwed by this whole thing, too. Their fans are currently in denial about their team's most recent championship, and I'm sure that I would be none too pleased to know that my team's title may have been influenced by crooked refs.

I am also doing this with the full acknowledgement that any conclusion in the Suns favor (read: I find evidence of game corruption) that I may find will be denounced as the biased findings of a homer fan. A perfectly valid criticism, so long as it does not veil my open attempts to remain as objective as humanly possible. I am doing this for the greater good of the game, not the Suns. If anyone can't figure that out, then I will accept their criticism with a grain of gun powder. I don't listen to people who don't think.

I have recorded the time, the infraction, the offending player, the offended player, a description of the play, the referee of record (where visible), and the position of each referee on the court in relation to the play for each whistle. I ignored obvious turnovers (Leandro throwing the ball to the scorer's table, San Antonio's 24 second violation) and just stuck with anything that is open to interpretation.

1st Quarter

10:08
O Foul
Finley floors Bell
Willard, in position

9:43
Foul
Bell pushes through Duncan screen
Rush, in position

8:48
Precedent
KT and TD pushing for rebounding position
Rush, in position

8:41
Late whistle
Elson goal tending Amare's shot
Willard, in position

(Mike Breen comments on "good officiating crew")

6:29
Foul
Thomas pushes Duncan on dunk, continuation
Willard, in position

6:10
Foul - precedent
Duncan over the back on block attempt, Stoudemire
Replay confirms Duncan hit Amare's wrist, despite Duncan's bug-eyed surprise
Refs not on camera, Donaghy in position, Duncan looks at Donaghy after whistle, inconclusive
(attributed to Rush: Foul on SA, 2 FT for PHX)

5:15
Foul
Finley pump fakes, Amare bites
Rush, baseline, Willard, top, Donaghy, not on camera

4:41
Foul
Horry drives into Amare under the basket, Amare is backing up, Horry initiates in the circle
Willard, in position
Pure interpretation call (charge circle), used to be a non-call, should still be a non-call
**Upon further review (after seeing too many people attribute the first two Amare fouls on Donaghy), it turns out that Donaghy indeed had baseline position and made the second call. He was off camera for the first call, but both Rush and Willard are clearly on camera calling the first foul on Amare.

3:48
Horry out of bounds
Duncan screens for Horry, Thomas cuts off lane, Horry bumps and Thomas flops, Horry steps across the baseline, Breen says "incidental contact" (see above call)
Horry holds ball, no delay of game warning
Willard, in position

3:18
Non-call
Duncan jumps into Thomas outside circle, Thomas flops, Duncan misses
Rush, baseline, Willard, corner, Donaghy, behind the play

2:35
Diaw schools Duncan
No foul controversy
Just a beautiful play

2:13
Foul
Horry bumps Diaw on the drive, lands on Bell, Diaw free throws
Rush, baseline, in position

1:49
Foul
Oberto blocks Diaw on the drive, one step, no dribble, not awarded continuation
Donaghy, in position

27.6
Foul
Oberto blocking Barbosa, in circle, shot falls, continuation
Rush, baseline, in position

5.5
Non call
Ginobili drives, questionable contact
Rush, baseline, in position

4.4
Non call
Oberto blocks Bell's path after rebound (land and turn rule)
Rush, baseline, Donaghy, nearest to play, leading out on break, Willard, far side, watching play

Final 1st Quarter Tally

Spurs: 5 fouls - W 1, R 2, D 1 (1 inconclusive)
Suns: 4 fouls - W1, R 2, D 1
Violations
Spurs: 2 - W 1, goal tending, R 1, Out of bounds
Suns: 0

Score: Suns 30, Spurs 25, Total 55
Potential over/under score: 220
Vegas over/under: 200.5
Spurs favored by 4.5

So far, the game is playing out just as I remember it, as well as just as I logged it in my minimalist live game blog. The calls are clean and fair, but Donaghy's whistle has been silent compared to his colleagues. I am on record on a public message board stating that Amare's first two fouls were legitimate. Despite his second coming 34 seconds after his first and being of the "I wish refs would stop calling that stupid foul!" variety, I can't argue the call. I stand by what I said. This game started out really well, with the Suns playing surprisingly good defense, yet missing out on some golden opportunities to expand their lead.

The thing that concerns me is the precedent the officials have set. They are on top of everything, to the point of calling contact within the charge circle by the book, hence four blocking fouls out of nine total. They also aren't buying into the flopping, as every time a player from either team takes a dive, even Raja's skid across the floor at the end of the quarter, were patently ignored. Already I'm thinking of Amare's fourth foul, where Oberto flopped after Amare stopped in the open court. We'll get to that later.

This is an agonizingly tedious task, so I'll be breaking this up over the course of hours or days. Everything will come back to this post, so don't look for a new one for each quarter. I'll do a final analysis after I'm done deconstructing this monstrosity of a game.

Stay tuned.

2nd Quarter (both teams with 5 FT in 1st Quarter)

11:29
Foul
Barbosa blocks Elson's cut to the basket inside the circle
2 FT
Willard, in position baseline

10:37
O Foul
Elson moving screen on Bell, Elson turned into Bell cutting from a back screen, Jon Barry accuses Bell of acting
Donaghy, sideline position

10:17 - 10:15
The infamous late whistle
Phoenix on a 6-0 run, lead 36-27, up tempo quarter
Ginobili drives past Bell, who concedes the lane, Time and score graphic appear showing 10:17
Ginobili misses the layup, Bell rebounds, Marion breaks down court at 10:16
Bell takes two dribbles, the whistle blows, Mike Breen announces,
"And now a late whistle. Tim Donaghy, outside official made the call late, and he's telling Mike D'Antoni to get back."
Jon Barry says, "I don't know what he saw" as the replay clearly shows no contact, although Ginobili throws his hands up.
Mike Breen, "But that doesn't really matter from a referee standpoint" referring to Donaghy's outside position.
2FT
THE CLOCK IS NOT RESET TO THE TIME OF THE ALLEGED FOUL!!!
Donaghy, half court, behind the play

Next possession 10:02 - 9:54
Diaw rebounds Thomas miss, Ginobili is on his back and Bowen is reaching in, Diaw passes out to Bell
Bowen is defending no one in particular, he's following the ball and jumps out on Bell
Diaw sets a screen, Bowen turns and immediately falls, an obvious flop
No call
Donaghy, baseline, Rush, sideline, Willard, half court

9:13
Foul
Diaw takes Duncan one on one, Diaw pump fakes then drives around, Duncan's hands land on Diaw's waist
Diaw makes it to the rim, Duncan misses the block from behind
D'Antoni can be heard, "Late call, Tim."
2 FT
Willard, baseline position

8:54
Non-call
Parker drives around and meets Thomas in the air inside the circle
Rush, baseline position, Donaghy sideline position, Willard, half court

8:23
Non-call
Typical Duncan shuffle step that will be called travelling in game four
Willard, baseline position

8:12
Travelling
Thomas pump fakes, shuffles his feet
Donaghy, half court, in position

8:04
Foul
Tony Parker drives past Marion's right, Thomas steps in, he gets position outside the circle, but the trailing foot is still moving
FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

7:13
Foul
Oberto over Diaw's back on rebound, Diaw has position, Oberto wraps his arm around Diaw's waist
Oberto throws his hands up in disbelief
Willard, sideline, in position, Rush, baseline, in position

7:01
No call
Diaw turns and is sandwiched by Oberto, ball knocked loose, turnover


6:56
Foul
Nash fouls Parker on a fast break spin move inside
Looks like a clean strip, but Nash's off hand is on Parker's hip, incidental after spinning into contact
2FT
Rush, half court, behind the play

6:34
Foul
Horry pulls down Stoudemire in front of official
Horry gets into Amare's face, tempers flare, no technical
Ball not in play, automatic two-shot foul
2FT
Rush, baseline, in position

6:02
Travelling
Parker picks up his dribble and shuffles his feet under pressure from Marion
Marion's arm is on Parker's midsection
Donaghy, half court, in position

5:50
No call
Nash drives with Bowen on him, Bowen's hand is on Nash's hip
Willard, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline position

4:10
No call
Parker gets loose underneath on a pass from Duncan
Amare goes up with Parker inside the circle, incidental contact
Willard, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline position

4:01
Foul
Nash trips and touches Bowen on break away
2FT
Donaghy, half court, behind the play, Willard, baseline, in front of the play

3:44
Foul
Duncan's arm catches Amare's back on a follow attempt
2FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

3:25
Foul
Thomas blocks Duncan's shot, Duncan rebounds, lowers his shoulder on the follow drive
Thomas' low arm is on Duncan's waist on the spin
2FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

2:38
No call
Duncan backs Diaw low, jumps into Diaw, Diaw flops
Duncan's smiling as he makes his way back down court
Willard, baseline position

2:01
Foul
Stoudemire backs Duncan down
Amare spins, Duncan jumps into Amare as Finley comes to double, hitting Amare's arms on the shot
Finley's second instead of Duncan's third
FT
Willard, half court, behind the play, Rush baseline, in position

53.6
No call
Nash drives, dishes to Marion
Marion cuts to the basket, Duncan bodies him inside the circle
Ball is stripped
Rush, baseline position

28.9
No call
Marion gets the feed underneath from Diaw
Duncan hacks Marion's arm on the shot, which rolls in
Rush, baseline position

9.7
No call
Marion guarding Parker, Duncan sets a back screen
Marion goes to move around the screen, and Duncan pushes his hip out, Marion hits the deck
Rush, half court position, Willard, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline, behind the play

Last Suns possession
Nash drives coast to coast
Bowen reaches in as Nash cuts through the lane
Duncan bodies Nash in the air within the circle
Rush, baseline position, Willard, half court, behind the play, Donaghy, sideline, behind the play

KEY STATS

Willard: 1 on Phoenix, 1 FT for Phoenix, 3 on SA, 2 FT for SA

Rush: 1 on Phoenix, 2 FT for Phoenix, 1 on SA, 2FT for SA

Donaghy: 4 on Phoenix, 2 FT for Phoenix, 2 on SA, 7 FT for SA

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

*Updated Foul and Free Throw Totals:

FIRST QUARTER STATS

Willard: 1 Fouls on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
1 FT for SA
Rush: 2 Fouls on PHX, 3 Fouls on SA
5 FT for PHX, 2 FT for SA
Donaghy: 1 Foul on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
2 FT for SA

SECOND QUARTER STATS

Willard: 1 Foul on PHX, 3 Fouls on SA
3 FT for PHX, 2 FT for SA
Rush: 1 Foul on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
2 FT for PHX, 2 FT for SA
Donaghy: 4 Fouls on PHX, 2 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 7 FT for SA

First Half Totals

Willard: 2 Fouls on PHX, 4 Fouls on SA
3 FT for PHX, 3 FT for SA
Rush: 3 Fouls on PHX, 4 Fouls on SA
7 FT for PHX, 4 FT for SA
Donaghy: 5 Fouls on PHX, 3 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 9 FT for SA

PHX: Called for 10 fouls, received 12 free throw attempts
SA: Called for 11 fouls, received 16 free throw attempts

(*Update: 7-25-07 11:56 PM
Willard and Donaghy's fouls and free throw totals have been adjusted to reflect the change in Amare's second foul. Willard lost one foul on Phoenix, and two free throws for San Antonio, and Donaghy picked them up. Even more damning for him.)

Interesting how Donaghy didn't call his first foul until 1:49 left in the first quarter, then called his second and third fouls within 20 seconds of each other a minute and a half into the second. That third call was the suspect late whistle that awarded Manu Ginobili two free throws and effectively ended the Suns' momentum. Instead of a chance to go up by 11 early in the second quarter and build on the sudden momentum of the second quarter, the Suns were up by 7 with the crowd into the game. One call early in the game may not determine the outcome of a game, but it can sure change the complexion of a game real quick.

The Suns opened the quarter on a 6-2 run. Oddly enough, setting aside Donaghy's free throws awarded to San Antonio, the Suns out shot the Spurs 6-2 from the line in the quarter. Donaghy's 7 free throw attempts awarded to the Spurs contributed to a 28-17 close out of the half for San Antonio, allowing them to take a two point lead into the break.

NOTE: The string of "no calls" at the end of the half were basically just the result of a frenetic close. In the grand scheme, they were inconsequential, as they appeared to go both ways. The reason I recorded them is that they are areas of inconsistencies that are beginning to develop, namely, what amounts to a foul near the basket, and is initiated contact inside the restricted circle no longer a foul?

I also left off all the turnovers I recorded, as well as the precedent breaking calls later in the first quarter. The turnovers were garden variety miscues and deflections, although one turnover in the second may have been the result of too much contact. There was no whistle, and the angle was bad. Sorry.

The third quarter is when it gets ugly. That will be tomorrow night's project. Until then, have fun with the first half. Plausible, so far.

***UPDATE:

If I were an NBA referee in a position to influence the outcome of a game, and I was faced with a Suns team suddenly running up a nine point lead, this is about what I'd be thinking. This game needs to stay in the single digits in the first half. OK. Spurs are inbounding. Come on, Manu, you have to score. Good, he's driving. He missed? Crap! No foul? This is going to turn into a double digit lead. *WHISTLE BLOWS* Good. Ginobili gets two free throws, a theoretical 11 point lead turns into an actual 7 point lead -- a four point swing. That will go well towards covering a 4.5 point spread.

Now, I'm not saying that's what happened. I'm not saying that Donaghy made that late call specifically to pull a four point swing, thus protecting San Antonio's chances to come back and cover the spread. I just think that it's rather convenient that Amare Stoudemire has 2 fouls already, which opens the door for the Spurs to make a nice third quarter push, as they are prone to do, because Amare isn't smart enough to stay out of foul trouble.

It's all about working on theory, because there are no definites in a point shaving scheme. You can only give your favored team the opportunity to cover the spread. You can't make the free throws for your team, but you can give them enough that they have a chance to make them on their own. You also don't blatantly make the key call that takes the underdog's biggest offensive threat out of the game. That would be too obvious. He's already made two stupid fouls, and he's bound to make another. It's a calculated risk, and you let Amare be Amare. Instead, you focus your attention on the one player that can kill your odds -- Steve Nash. So Bowen gets away with being more physical. That's just the way he plays.

If I can figure this out, I'm sure that a professional could, too. Was this game fixed?

Quick Question

Anyone heard what Charles "I lost $10 million in Vegas" Barkley had to say, yet? He's been suspiciously quiet on the matter.

Unrelated...just found that lovely image through truehoop. Apparently, it was an actual e-bay auction...until the site pulled it. Fortunately, the smart ass was smart enough to screen print it for us.

Donaghy Did It

Although I'm not thrilled with the length of the intro and the graininess of the video (that's the price we pay to by pass copy protection), I do feel compelled to share this. I'm sure I'm not the only one, but it's all for the greater good.