Whistle Blowers and Foul Play

***Updated Tuesday, July 24 2007 5:39 AM AZ time.

For purposes of this analysis, I focused solely on fouls and violations, either real or imagined. I am looking at both sides of the court. I want to be fair and as objective as possible, which is in my best interest, anyway, because we have more than just who wins the game consider. There is a matter of the final score, and the total for both teams combined.

Yes, I believe that the Spurs were screwed by this whole thing, too. Their fans are currently in denial about their team's most recent championship, and I'm sure that I would be none too pleased to know that my team's title may have been influenced by crooked refs.

I am also doing this with the full acknowledgement that any conclusion in the Suns favor (read: I find evidence of game corruption) that I may find will be denounced as the biased findings of a homer fan. A perfectly valid criticism, so long as it does not veil my open attempts to remain as objective as humanly possible. I am doing this for the greater good of the game, not the Suns. If anyone can't figure that out, then I will accept their criticism with a grain of gun powder. I don't listen to people who don't think.

I have recorded the time, the infraction, the offending player, the offended player, a description of the play, the referee of record (where visible), and the position of each referee on the court in relation to the play for each whistle. I ignored obvious turnovers (Leandro throwing the ball to the scorer's table, San Antonio's 24 second violation) and just stuck with anything that is open to interpretation.

1st Quarter

10:08
O Foul
Finley floors Bell
Willard, in position

9:43
Foul
Bell pushes through Duncan screen
Rush, in position

8:48
Precedent
KT and TD pushing for rebounding position
Rush, in position

8:41
Late whistle
Elson goal tending Amare's shot
Willard, in position

(Mike Breen comments on "good officiating crew")

6:29
Foul
Thomas pushes Duncan on dunk, continuation
Willard, in position

6:10
Foul - precedent
Duncan over the back on block attempt, Stoudemire
Replay confirms Duncan hit Amare's wrist, despite Duncan's bug-eyed surprise
Refs not on camera, Donaghy in position, Duncan looks at Donaghy after whistle, inconclusive
(attributed to Rush: Foul on SA, 2 FT for PHX)

5:15
Foul
Finley pump fakes, Amare bites
Rush, baseline, Willard, top, Donaghy, not on camera

4:41
Foul
Horry drives into Amare under the basket, Amare is backing up, Horry initiates in the circle
Willard, in position
Pure interpretation call (charge circle), used to be a non-call, should still be a non-call
**Upon further review (after seeing too many people attribute the first two Amare fouls on Donaghy), it turns out that Donaghy indeed had baseline position and made the second call. He was off camera for the first call, but both Rush and Willard are clearly on camera calling the first foul on Amare.

3:48
Horry out of bounds
Duncan screens for Horry, Thomas cuts off lane, Horry bumps and Thomas flops, Horry steps across the baseline, Breen says "incidental contact" (see above call)
Horry holds ball, no delay of game warning
Willard, in position

3:18
Non-call
Duncan jumps into Thomas outside circle, Thomas flops, Duncan misses
Rush, baseline, Willard, corner, Donaghy, behind the play

2:35
Diaw schools Duncan
No foul controversy
Just a beautiful play

2:13
Foul
Horry bumps Diaw on the drive, lands on Bell, Diaw free throws
Rush, baseline, in position

1:49
Foul
Oberto blocks Diaw on the drive, one step, no dribble, not awarded continuation
Donaghy, in position

27.6
Foul
Oberto blocking Barbosa, in circle, shot falls, continuation
Rush, baseline, in position

5.5
Non call
Ginobili drives, questionable contact
Rush, baseline, in position

4.4
Non call
Oberto blocks Bell's path after rebound (land and turn rule)
Rush, baseline, Donaghy, nearest to play, leading out on break, Willard, far side, watching play

Final 1st Quarter Tally

Spurs: 5 fouls - W 1, R 2, D 1 (1 inconclusive)
Suns: 4 fouls - W1, R 2, D 1
Violations
Spurs: 2 - W 1, goal tending, R 1, Out of bounds
Suns: 0

Score: Suns 30, Spurs 25, Total 55
Potential over/under score: 220
Vegas over/under: 200.5
Spurs favored by 4.5

So far, the game is playing out just as I remember it, as well as just as I logged it in my minimalist live game blog. The calls are clean and fair, but Donaghy's whistle has been silent compared to his colleagues. I am on record on a public message board stating that Amare's first two fouls were legitimate. Despite his second coming 34 seconds after his first and being of the "I wish refs would stop calling that stupid foul!" variety, I can't argue the call. I stand by what I said. This game started out really well, with the Suns playing surprisingly good defense, yet missing out on some golden opportunities to expand their lead.

The thing that concerns me is the precedent the officials have set. They are on top of everything, to the point of calling contact within the charge circle by the book, hence four blocking fouls out of nine total. They also aren't buying into the flopping, as every time a player from either team takes a dive, even Raja's skid across the floor at the end of the quarter, were patently ignored. Already I'm thinking of Amare's fourth foul, where Oberto flopped after Amare stopped in the open court. We'll get to that later.

This is an agonizingly tedious task, so I'll be breaking this up over the course of hours or days. Everything will come back to this post, so don't look for a new one for each quarter. I'll do a final analysis after I'm done deconstructing this monstrosity of a game.

Stay tuned.

2nd Quarter (both teams with 5 FT in 1st Quarter)

11:29
Foul
Barbosa blocks Elson's cut to the basket inside the circle
2 FT
Willard, in position baseline

10:37
O Foul
Elson moving screen on Bell, Elson turned into Bell cutting from a back screen, Jon Barry accuses Bell of acting
Donaghy, sideline position

10:17 - 10:15
The infamous late whistle
Phoenix on a 6-0 run, lead 36-27, up tempo quarter
Ginobili drives past Bell, who concedes the lane, Time and score graphic appear showing 10:17
Ginobili misses the layup, Bell rebounds, Marion breaks down court at 10:16
Bell takes two dribbles, the whistle blows, Mike Breen announces,
"And now a late whistle. Tim Donaghy, outside official made the call late, and he's telling Mike D'Antoni to get back."
Jon Barry says, "I don't know what he saw" as the replay clearly shows no contact, although Ginobili throws his hands up.
Mike Breen, "But that doesn't really matter from a referee standpoint" referring to Donaghy's outside position.
2FT
THE CLOCK IS NOT RESET TO THE TIME OF THE ALLEGED FOUL!!!
Donaghy, half court, behind the play

Next possession 10:02 - 9:54
Diaw rebounds Thomas miss, Ginobili is on his back and Bowen is reaching in, Diaw passes out to Bell
Bowen is defending no one in particular, he's following the ball and jumps out on Bell
Diaw sets a screen, Bowen turns and immediately falls, an obvious flop
No call
Donaghy, baseline, Rush, sideline, Willard, half court

9:13
Foul
Diaw takes Duncan one on one, Diaw pump fakes then drives around, Duncan's hands land on Diaw's waist
Diaw makes it to the rim, Duncan misses the block from behind
D'Antoni can be heard, "Late call, Tim."
2 FT
Willard, baseline position

8:54
Non-call
Parker drives around and meets Thomas in the air inside the circle
Rush, baseline position, Donaghy sideline position, Willard, half court

8:23
Non-call
Typical Duncan shuffle step that will be called travelling in game four
Willard, baseline position

8:12
Travelling
Thomas pump fakes, shuffles his feet
Donaghy, half court, in position

8:04
Foul
Tony Parker drives past Marion's right, Thomas steps in, he gets position outside the circle, but the trailing foot is still moving
FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

7:13
Foul
Oberto over Diaw's back on rebound, Diaw has position, Oberto wraps his arm around Diaw's waist
Oberto throws his hands up in disbelief
Willard, sideline, in position, Rush, baseline, in position

7:01
No call
Diaw turns and is sandwiched by Oberto, ball knocked loose, turnover


6:56
Foul
Nash fouls Parker on a fast break spin move inside
Looks like a clean strip, but Nash's off hand is on Parker's hip, incidental after spinning into contact
2FT
Rush, half court, behind the play

6:34
Foul
Horry pulls down Stoudemire in front of official
Horry gets into Amare's face, tempers flare, no technical
Ball not in play, automatic two-shot foul
2FT
Rush, baseline, in position

6:02
Travelling
Parker picks up his dribble and shuffles his feet under pressure from Marion
Marion's arm is on Parker's midsection
Donaghy, half court, in position

5:50
No call
Nash drives with Bowen on him, Bowen's hand is on Nash's hip
Willard, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline position

4:10
No call
Parker gets loose underneath on a pass from Duncan
Amare goes up with Parker inside the circle, incidental contact
Willard, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline position

4:01
Foul
Nash trips and touches Bowen on break away
2FT
Donaghy, half court, behind the play, Willard, baseline, in front of the play

3:44
Foul
Duncan's arm catches Amare's back on a follow attempt
2FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

3:25
Foul
Thomas blocks Duncan's shot, Duncan rebounds, lowers his shoulder on the follow drive
Thomas' low arm is on Duncan's waist on the spin
2FT
Donaghy, baseline, in position

2:38
No call
Duncan backs Diaw low, jumps into Diaw, Diaw flops
Duncan's smiling as he makes his way back down court
Willard, baseline position

2:01
Foul
Stoudemire backs Duncan down
Amare spins, Duncan jumps into Amare as Finley comes to double, hitting Amare's arms on the shot
Finley's second instead of Duncan's third
FT
Willard, half court, behind the play, Rush baseline, in position

53.6
No call
Nash drives, dishes to Marion
Marion cuts to the basket, Duncan bodies him inside the circle
Ball is stripped
Rush, baseline position

28.9
No call
Marion gets the feed underneath from Diaw
Duncan hacks Marion's arm on the shot, which rolls in
Rush, baseline position

9.7
No call
Marion guarding Parker, Duncan sets a back screen
Marion goes to move around the screen, and Duncan pushes his hip out, Marion hits the deck
Rush, half court position, Willard, baseline position, Donaghy, sideline, behind the play

Last Suns possession
Nash drives coast to coast
Bowen reaches in as Nash cuts through the lane
Duncan bodies Nash in the air within the circle
Rush, baseline position, Willard, half court, behind the play, Donaghy, sideline, behind the play

KEY STATS

Willard: 1 on Phoenix, 1 FT for Phoenix, 3 on SA, 2 FT for SA

Rush: 1 on Phoenix, 2 FT for Phoenix, 1 on SA, 2FT for SA

Donaghy: 4 on Phoenix, 2 FT for Phoenix, 2 on SA, 7 FT for SA

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

*Updated Foul and Free Throw Totals:

FIRST QUARTER STATS

Willard: 1 Fouls on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
1 FT for SA
Rush: 2 Fouls on PHX, 3 Fouls on SA
5 FT for PHX, 2 FT for SA
Donaghy: 1 Foul on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
2 FT for SA

SECOND QUARTER STATS

Willard: 1 Foul on PHX, 3 Fouls on SA
3 FT for PHX, 2 FT for SA
Rush: 1 Foul on PHX, 1 Foul on SA
2 FT for PHX, 2 FT for SA
Donaghy: 4 Fouls on PHX, 2 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 7 FT for SA

First Half Totals

Willard: 2 Fouls on PHX, 4 Fouls on SA
3 FT for PHX, 3 FT for SA
Rush: 3 Fouls on PHX, 4 Fouls on SA
7 FT for PHX, 4 FT for SA
Donaghy: 5 Fouls on PHX, 3 Fouls on SA
2 FT for PHX, 9 FT for SA

PHX: Called for 10 fouls, received 12 free throw attempts
SA: Called for 11 fouls, received 16 free throw attempts

(*Update: 7-25-07 11:56 PM
Willard and Donaghy's fouls and free throw totals have been adjusted to reflect the change in Amare's second foul. Willard lost one foul on Phoenix, and two free throws for San Antonio, and Donaghy picked them up. Even more damning for him.)

Interesting how Donaghy didn't call his first foul until 1:49 left in the first quarter, then called his second and third fouls within 20 seconds of each other a minute and a half into the second. That third call was the suspect late whistle that awarded Manu Ginobili two free throws and effectively ended the Suns' momentum. Instead of a chance to go up by 11 early in the second quarter and build on the sudden momentum of the second quarter, the Suns were up by 7 with the crowd into the game. One call early in the game may not determine the outcome of a game, but it can sure change the complexion of a game real quick.

The Suns opened the quarter on a 6-2 run. Oddly enough, setting aside Donaghy's free throws awarded to San Antonio, the Suns out shot the Spurs 6-2 from the line in the quarter. Donaghy's 7 free throw attempts awarded to the Spurs contributed to a 28-17 close out of the half for San Antonio, allowing them to take a two point lead into the break.

NOTE: The string of "no calls" at the end of the half were basically just the result of a frenetic close. In the grand scheme, they were inconsequential, as they appeared to go both ways. The reason I recorded them is that they are areas of inconsistencies that are beginning to develop, namely, what amounts to a foul near the basket, and is initiated contact inside the restricted circle no longer a foul?

I also left off all the turnovers I recorded, as well as the precedent breaking calls later in the first quarter. The turnovers were garden variety miscues and deflections, although one turnover in the second may have been the result of too much contact. There was no whistle, and the angle was bad. Sorry.

The third quarter is when it gets ugly. That will be tomorrow night's project. Until then, have fun with the first half. Plausible, so far.

***UPDATE:

If I were an NBA referee in a position to influence the outcome of a game, and I was faced with a Suns team suddenly running up a nine point lead, this is about what I'd be thinking. This game needs to stay in the single digits in the first half. OK. Spurs are inbounding. Come on, Manu, you have to score. Good, he's driving. He missed? Crap! No foul? This is going to turn into a double digit lead. *WHISTLE BLOWS* Good. Ginobili gets two free throws, a theoretical 11 point lead turns into an actual 7 point lead -- a four point swing. That will go well towards covering a 4.5 point spread.

Now, I'm not saying that's what happened. I'm not saying that Donaghy made that late call specifically to pull a four point swing, thus protecting San Antonio's chances to come back and cover the spread. I just think that it's rather convenient that Amare Stoudemire has 2 fouls already, which opens the door for the Spurs to make a nice third quarter push, as they are prone to do, because Amare isn't smart enough to stay out of foul trouble.

It's all about working on theory, because there are no definites in a point shaving scheme. You can only give your favored team the opportunity to cover the spread. You can't make the free throws for your team, but you can give them enough that they have a chance to make them on their own. You also don't blatantly make the key call that takes the underdog's biggest offensive threat out of the game. That would be too obvious. He's already made two stupid fouls, and he's bound to make another. It's a calculated risk, and you let Amare be Amare. Instead, you focus your attention on the one player that can kill your odds -- Steve Nash. So Bowen gets away with being more physical. That's just the way he plays.

If I can figure this out, I'm sure that a professional could, too. Was this game fixed?