KG, or Not KG?

It's an agonizing thought process - balancing talent and championship potential with red ink. Everything hinges on events yet to transpire.

Does Kevin Garnett want out of Minnesota? Of course not. He sees himself as the Timberwolves' version of his friend and idol, the late Kirby Puckett, sticking with the franchise that drafted him through a career roller coaster of tumult and success. He has never publicly spoken about leaving Minnesota, whether through his own desire or the team's. The closest we've come to knowing what is really brewing in that intense mind is the now-famous quote, "Thank God for opt-outs."

Kevin McHale has blown this one big time, and now he is left with one of two choices to appease the 7-foot MVP.

1. Retire unceremoniously, and let Fred Hoiberg clean up his mess, which would undoubtedly result in an off-season trade to bring in new younger talent to replace Garnett.

2. Get fired, and let Fred Hoiberg clean up his mess, which would undoubtedly result in an off-season trade to bring in new younger talent to replace Garnett.

Seriously, the Wolves have no options at this point. They crippled themselves with the Joe Smith fiasco, they let Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell walk all over them, and they have more holes to fill than one top ten draft pick this season can fill. Add to that their lack of trade commodities, and they are left with one scenario - trade the only player who has any value, and get a boat load of talent and draft picks in return.

Enter the Phoenix Suns.

There are a lot of "ifs" to reconcile before anyone can talk seriously about a Phoenix trade to pick up Minnesota's perennial All Star, All Defensive team member, and former league M.V.P., not the least of which regarding the league's luxury tax threshold. The Suns have been teetering the line for two years now, and Suns owner Robert Sarver has made it clear that he absolutely does NOT want to go there - with one caveat. If the Suns win the championship, it's hard not to look deeply at all options available to improve the team and keep its title hopes alive.

So if the Suns win the championship, Kevin Garnett can be one step closer to donning Purple and Orange.

But there is still more to it.

The Wolves need to rebuild, and to do that, they need draft picks. Now, and in the future, they need help from the college ranks. They need solid young players who have proved themselves, and they need to keep salaries relatively low in order to remain competitive for years to come.

Again - enter the Phoenix Suns...and another big IF.

If the Atlanta Hawks' recent tank-fest proves unsuccessful in terms of landing a top three pick in 2007, the Suns get that pick and put themselves in prime position to be a major cog within the off-season trade machine. Not only would they land anywhere from 4 to 7 in the draft, they also have Cleveland's (low to mid 20s) and their own (29). Three first round picks in the deepest draft of recent memory. That's one hell of a starting block for the trade season sprint.

Phoenix also has loads of cap-friendly contracts to play with. As always, number one on that list is Shawn Marion's max deal that has two years at $34.25 million left after this season ends. Compare that to Garnett's two years at $45 million, with the infamous opt-out after the 2008 season. Throw in Marcus Banks and a couple of those coveted draft slots, and the Suns are well within firing range of the 125% + 100k rule.

Not that he would have a choice in the matter, but would Marion go for it? Leave town to have a chance to prove his worth without the media distractions of a two-time M.V.P. and rising star? I'm sure he would, but I'm also sure that it would be nothing that he expected, and he would rue the day that he admitted as much to ESPN the Magazine. The grass is always greener, they say, and Minnesota is known more for its freezing winters than sprawling gardens.

It would be a hasty, ill-conceived move on the part of the Suns to pull a trigger on a Garnett for Marion deal. Why give up a player who meshes so well with this team simply on the basis that his salary does not? There are other ways, and Robert Sarver would have to bite the bullet that he might otherwise use to shoot himself in the foot.

The Suns will need to dump salary, regardless of the results of this postseason and whether or not they make a trade for Garnett. The payroll in Phoenix will be pushing the $77-78 million mark next season, and that's not counting the five roster spots the team has to fill, in accordance with the most recent collective bargaining agreement.

The odd thing about an NBA General Manager's job is that they constantly have to base their long-term goals on short-term expectations. They have to keep an eye on future free agent markets, draft classes, and trade possibilities, as well as all the salary implications that go with it - will their hands be financially tied in 3 years because of a deal they made last summer to win a championship this June?

It's a tough business, to be sure. So tough that the no-brainer signing of Boris Diaw to a $45 million contract last season is suddenly looking like the NBAPA coup of the new millennium, Kwame Brown and Michael Olawakandi notwithstanding. Reward a player for potential or one good year, and it could leave a franchise snake-bit for half a decade if the player doesn't pan out.

But I think that Diaw is a special case. He is the consummate team player, excellent passer from the high post, and has almost unparalleled court vision. His problem this year is that he has too many targets and not enough position. When Amare came back better than ever, and Leandro Barbosa emerged as the player we all thought he would be a year quicker than we all thought, Boris Diaw's place on the team got lost in the shuffle. Yes, he came to camp in the typical "I just got a HUGE extension, so now I can relax" shape that fans have seen all too often, but he IS a team guy, and he DID work himself back into shape well enough.

I just think that Diaw's place is as the focal point of a pivot passing offense, similar to Sacramento with Chris Webber. The difference is that he doesn't always need the ball in his hands. He'll be just as happy setting a screen for a shooter. But if the offensive set has broken down, he is the guy you send give the ball to, and he will find a play for someone.

Maybe I'm just trying to make a hard sell on a guy who has been a big disappointment this regular season, but I think that it would be a good scenario for Boris to be with a group of young guys that he can position for success - the kind of team that gets lost late in a game when the pressure is on, and no one knows what to do with the ball. He knows what others need to do.

For a team like Minnesota, Boris Diaw's 5 year, $45 million contract is a bargain.

Then there is Marcus Banks, who has been a complete bust, through no fault of his own, in Mike D'Antoni's system. This is a player that Minnesota traded for last season, and who took less money than Minnesota offered to sign with the Suns. Now they would have an opportunity to get him back at a discount, and that's always a smart business move. Minnesota doesn't have the big time ball moving system that Phoenix has, and Banks would benefit from a position that doesn't require the other-worldly decision making of Steve Nash.

So a package of Boris Diaw, Marcus Banks, Kurt Thomas' expiring contract (another "if" - if Thomas picks up his player option for the 2007-08 season, which he will most likely take), and two of Phoenix's first rounders, as well as a couple of future first and second round picks could be just the deal that Minnesota is not only looking for, but desperately needs in order to start over. The biggest bonus for them is that they would not have to start from ground zero, as they could easily be a .500 team with these components.

How would that work out for the Suns?

Not quite as well as many fans would hope, and certainly not well enough for Robert Sarver's check book.

Even if Phoenix makes that trade, title or not, they would be well over the projected luxury tax threshold the next two years. The more players the Suns give up, the more roster spots they would have to fill with less money than they had anticipated even without a Garnett trade.

After a trade like that, the Suns' salary would be around $78 million next season with 7 spots to fill, and a whopping $82.4 million in 2008 with the same 7 spots open. That first year isn't so bad, considering that the salary is about the same with 2 fewer open roster spots. But 2008 would be more than $10 million over where it stands now, still with 7 open seats on the bench. Someone else would have to go, and that someone is Shawn Marion (2008-09 is the last year of his max deal). A championship before then would certainly make the bitter pill of losing the Matrix much easier to swallow for all parties involved - team, player, and fans.

I haven't even started talking about the chemistry issues. As good a guy as he seems to be, Kevin Garnett can be volatile when things go bad. Sure, winning cures all athletic ills, but how would he handle having to share the floor with his second coming, Amare Stoudemire?

How would Amare take having to share the spotlight with yet another M.V.P. candidate, when he wants that award so badly for himself? Worst and most importantly of all, they play the same position with a lot of similarities. They both excel at facing the basket in the low post, and both have decent mid-range jumpers. They both like to attack the rim, and both demand the ball.

I'm sure that Amare looks up to KG and respects him immensely, but two big, hungry dogs can't share the same bowl.

To be honest, as intriguing as the prospect may be, I don't see this kind of deal working for the Suns. Whether Marion or Diaw is the centerpiece of the Suns' end, the salary and on-court ramifications look to be too great an obstacle. There are just too many things that would have to go right, and even more that could go wrong in a deal like that to make it worthwhile for a team homing in on (hopefully) its first championship trophy.