April 8, 2007

So what's wrong?

The F-1 Suns seems to be sputtering and choking its way to the regular season finish line, and questions abound regarding the team's playoff future.

Where is Boris Diaw's aggressiveness?

Where is Junior's shot?

Why is D'Antoni not playing the bench more?

Are the Suns tired?

In general, what is wrong with the Suns?

First of all, there is nothing wrong with the Suns as a team that can't be fixed by a night out at Golfland with their families. The NBA season is notoriously long and meaningless, and it's pretty easy to trip up now and then along the way. A few days off, and the batteries are sure to be recharged fully for the season that is also needlessly long, but infinitely more meaningful. Fortunately, that's exactly what they'll get starting April 18th (3 or 4 days off, depending on whether they open the postseason the following Saturday or Sunday). Relax - they'll be fine.

The more pressing issues revolve around certain individuals and their performances, namely Boris Diaw. It's safe to say that the year following his Most Improved Player season has been a total bust. Whether it was learning to play along side Amare Stoudemire (and their shared preference for working the high left post), the midseason back injury, or his generally passive nature, Diaw has failed miserably to live up to the expectations he set for himself during last years playoffs.

You remember the 18.7 point, 6.7 rebound, 5.2 assist averages that netted him a 5-year, $45 million contract extension in the offseason. We didn't expect the numbers this season, but we certainly expected the effort. It simply hasn't been there all year. He's had 76 games so far this season to figure out his place, and I have absolutely no answers as to why he hasn't.

If it continues into the playoffs, we can kiss that championship goodbye in the second round, and the player most likely to suffer for it will be Shawn Marion. If the Larry O'Brien trophy doesn't make it's way down Central Ave in June, look for Trix to be dealt by August. I'd like to be the first person to offer a sardonic thank you to Diaw in the event that happens.

The shooting has been a concern of late, as well. Raja has been off and on all year, but that's to be expected from such a streaky shooter. But he more than makes up for it with his intensity, his tenacity, and mythic willingness to sacrifice his sore knees and battered body every night for a chance to win.

Junior's shot has been the biggest mystery. First it was the New Coke ball. Then it was his confidence. Now it's his spotty minutes. Whenever he's on one of his extended slumps, there is always a different excuse. He's back to the leather, he knows he's getting 16 minutes a game on his defense alone, and he reportedly makes 90% of his pregame jumpers.

So what's wrong? From what I can tell, he's too busy thinking. He's hesitant. He spent an entire season learning how to come off screens and catch-and-shoot from Reggie Miller, and he seems to be standing there wondering whether the seam is lined up in his hand properly for good rotation. It's my understanding that shooters just shoot, so why is he even thinking about it? Maybe he should just save some of that pregame shooting efficiency for the actual game. Stop thinking and just shoot the damn ball.

The defense. Where did it go? During the franchise history making win streak in January, the Suns were in the midst of cracking the top 10 in field goal defense. Then Kurt Thomas went down. The same thing happened last season - the Suns were one of the better defensive teams in the league until Thomas went down with a stress fracture in his foot (a more detailed analysis is in the January archive). The rest of the season, they allowed in the middle 47% range. Guess what...KT went down in Memphis with a hyperextended (non-shooting) elbow, and the Suns promptly started allowing 47.8% field goal shooting.

So why didn't that defense come back with Kurt? Because D'Antoni forgot how to use him in the rotation. His minutes have been sporadic and without any semblence of rhythm, and Thomas just isn't able to make the same defensive impact that he did when the rotation was set in stone.

You want evidence? Just look at the last game in San Antonio. Tim Duncan started the game 2-2 from the field. That was with Amare on him. When Amare went out, first for his regular break and then due to foul trouble, it was Kurt Thomas manning the defensive post. The result? Timmy went 4 of 10 from the field, and the Suns finished the half with a one point lead. Not only that, but the Suns held the Spurs to 35.9% shooting for the half. Who in the entire NBA loving world EVER have believed that the Suns would be leading a game with a halftime score of 37-36? NOBODY! Not even me. But they were, and that's enough proof for me that the Suns defense is going to be just fine two weeks from now. Eat that on the TNT set, Charles Barkley.

To be continued...

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