The Fantasy Machine

It's that time of year again. The end of the regular season is upon us finally, and fans are looking ahead to the excitement the next two months might bring us. Yes - it's draft speculation time again.

For NBA fans, the here and now is never the concern, unless our team just beat the pants off a hated rival. We're constantly living in the future, looking forward to playoff success, or reliving past championships and missed opportunities. And one prospect that no fan can ignore in a season with such a prospectively deep draft is the idea of adding that one missing link to the championship puzzle that is their home team.

A Phoenician recently posed the question to Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver on his weekly call-in segment on KTAR as to whether the Suns would look to move up in the draft, even if the team ended up with Atlanta's lottery pick secured in the Joe Johnson deal. His answer - definitely. And after listening to the show and reading various articles on the web - in particular, Kelly Dwyer's recent suggestion that the Utah Jazz might want to part with Andrei Kirilenko - I've been mulling over some fantasy draft scenarios of my own. Mind you, there's still far too much that can happen to derail any possibilities I come up with, but it still should make for an interesting conversation piece.

Let's assume Atlanta completely whiffs on the lottery, and ends up somewhere between four and seven. Let's also assume that the Suns remain consistent with their draft history, athletic scoring threats with some defensive upside (a bonus, not a requirement). Joakim Noah of Florida, who would have been the consensus number one pick had he entered the draft last year, for all his hustle and energy, would be a terrible fit for the Suns. So who does that leave us with?

1. Al Horford - 6'9" 235 pound forward, Florida, Junior
2. Brandon Wright - 6'10" 210 pound forward, North Carolina, Freshman
3. Corey Brewer - 6'8" 185 pound guard, Florida, Junior

There's also Yi Jianlin, China's watered down version of Amare Stoudemire. From what I've seen, he seems to be quick and athletic enough, especially for a 7-footer. He also fits the international direction the Suns have been going of late. But whether he's really on the Suns' radar, I have no idea. I surely wouldn't be upset, at this point, to see him in Suns purple.

Should the Sarver/D'Antoni/Griffin triumvirate really look to move above that crop? What would they have to give up for a shot at Kevin Durant?

A LOT!

Considering that the Suns are on the verge of busting through the NBA's luxury tax threshold, and the franchise potential of Kevin Durant, we'd have to say goodbye to our current most expensive and controversially under-appreciated star, Shawn Marion. For those that aren't counting, that would be throwing away 19 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1.5 blocks a game, as well as the unbelievably versatile position defense Marion offers.

The question remains whether Memphis, Boston, Milwaukee, or whichever team is in position to get Durant would want to sacrifice him for Marion's lack of commercial appeal. As great as Marion is, NBA fans (including many sporting purple and orange) are clueless to his true value. I don't think any GM in their right mind would give up the gate receipts and national television shares that come with Kevin Durant, regardless of the talent they'd receive in return. For a deal like that to be feasible, we're talking Amare Stoudemire.

And in either case, that means the Suns have to take back some inflated salaries in order to abide by the league's 25% rule. (One team cannot receive salaries in excess of 125% plus $100,000 of what it trades.) And I don't see Phoenix picking up long term albatrosses, Theo Ratliff or Wally Szczerbiak. And I don't see Boston, Memphis, or Milwaukee giving up Paul Pierce, Pau Gasol, or Michael Redd respectively in that kind of deal. Not one that warrants giving up Durant, as well.

But all that depends on who gets what pick and which player is taken number one overall - Oden or Durant. Speaking of the Ohio State Robert Parrish look-alike, expect word next week on his decision. If he stays in school, which anyone of even marginal intelligence should highly doubt, then nobody is giving up Durant, and moving up to two or three isn't worth the sacrifice.

All that said, I've got my money on Al Horford. Seriously...who doesn't think that Phoenix is drooling over a guy as physically gifted as Stoudemire, with presumably as much defensive upside as Marion, and still three years away from a big contract? The Suns are lacking front court depth, Kurt Thomas' salary doesn't justify 15-20 minutes a game, and Boris Diaw has been a major bust this season.

Which brings us back to the Dwyer article. If anyone is going to Utah for Kirilenko, it's Diaw.

But, not to disappoint Kelly Dwyer or question his Suns cred, Andre Kirilenko has five years left on a max contract, and he has underperformed and over-complained about a lack of touches this year. So despite having an immensely understanding and stunningly hot wife, as well as a knack for disappointing would-be lane scorers, that is simply not the direction Robert Sarver wants to point his checkbook.

As usual, the laid-back Suns are going to sit and take a wait-and-see attitude. They'll do a lot of talking on draft day, but there won't be much action, except to dump their second and third first rounders. That is, of course, assuming that Atlanta whiffs on the lottery, and Phoenix remains consistent with their draft history.